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This Weather Phenomenon Could Mean More Hurricanes For Los Cabos This Year

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It’s time to batten down the hatches for what is expected to be a rough hurricane season in Los Cabos this year due to the effects of the El Niño weather pattern.

The 2023 Hurricane Season Predictions

Hurricane hitting a community and flooding roads

According to the National Water Commission, Los Cabos could be in for a pretty active hurricane season with a total of 16 to 22 tropical disturbances this year.

A total of nine to eleven storms in the Pacific Ocean are expected to be in the tropical storm range. Meanwhile, a total of four to six storms are expected to actually be declared hurricanes at level one or two.

The most destructive hurricanes, levels three, four, and five, are expected to number three to five during this year’s season.

The higher-than-usual season is a 30 percent increase over the average hurricane season in the Pacific. Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, only ten to sixteen total tropical disturbances are expected, which is a ten percent decrease over the average season.

Grey skies above palm trees

It is important to note two factors. First, this is only a prediction for the entire season starting May 15 and running through November. It is subject to revisions.

Second, the prediction is for the entire Pacific Ocean, which also includes other parts of Mexico, such as Acapulco and even Puerto Vallarta. It does not mean these storms will impact Los Cabos.

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Path of Hurricane Kay

Why The Increase In Storms?

According to meteorologists, the 30 percent increase in Pacific Ocean tropical disturbances this season is due to the effects of El Niño and La Niña. This weather pattern has greatly shifted an increase or rain and snow over the Western United States as well.

In fact, due to the warming ocean current off the coast of Baja California Sur during a typical El Niño season, the area could expect more hurricanes, and they will generally be more powerful in category strength.

Waves crashing up on shore near palapa

While the La Niña pattern has been dominant over the past three years, weather scientists see the pattern shifting.

The good news is that Baja California Sur would be less impacted by rising sea waters than other areas like the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.

However, the impact on Los Cabos and the resulting hit to the tourism market will be felt.

Stormy Day in Cabo overlooking the marina with a view of boats while it's raining.

Los Cabos Prepares

Los Cabos has already started preparing for the official start of the hurricane season on May 15.

Local officials have started stockpiling emergency supplies, securing evacuation areas, and inspecting facilities to make sure they are ready to handle any potentially strong storms.

They also revised the emergency response plan that was put in place before Hurricane Odile devastated the area ten years ago. This time, Los Cabos officials believe they are better ready for this level of storm.

Debris left on Los Cabos beach after storm

What Tourists Should Do

Most importantly, tourists should plan ahead by acquiring travel insurance if they expect to travel to Los Cabos during the hurricane season, which runs from May 15 to November 15.

If they travel during this time, they should monitor the weather while on vacation and listen to official warnings about potential storms.

Palm trees swaying in the wind of a rough storm

Tourists should realize that it may be difficult to change flight arrangements to return home once a storm is projected to hit the area. Therefore, they should plan to shelter in place to ride out the storm.

Follow the directions of local officials as to how to prepare for the landfall of the storm and precautions to take in advance. Be sure to notify your emergency contact back home about the situation.

It is definitely better to prepare in advance and not have a tropical storm or hurricane impact a visitor’s vacation to the beach resort destination of Los Cabos.

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