How Much Does It Rain In Los Cabos During The Winter? This New Tool Tells You In Seconds

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If you’ve checked your weather app and seen a little rain cloud over Cabo every single day of your winter trip, you’re not alone — and no, it doesn’t mean your vacation is doomed.

We at The Cabo Sun spend a lot of time staring at forecasts and long-term climate data for Los Cabos, and the short version is this: winter is our driest, most predictable time of year. The odds of your whole trip getting rained out are extremely low.

Let’s break down what “rain in winter” really looks like here, and then we’ll show you a new tool that lets you check average rain for your exact dates in just a few seconds.

So… how much does it actually rain in winter?

Using long-term climate records for Cabo San Lucas (1981–2010), winter months are about as low-risk as it gets for rain. On average:

• December: ~0.6 inches (15 mm) of rain on 1 day
• January: ~0.5 inches (13 mm) of rain on 1 day
• February: ~0.1 inches (4 mm) of rain on 1 day

That’s it. Spread across the whole month.

For context, the wettest month, September, averages around 4–5 inches of rain over about 4–5 days, depending on the dataset you use. Winter simply isn’t in the same league.

Most years, you’ll get wall-to-wall sunshine, maybe a quick shower or two, and that’s all. Some winters are completely dry; others get one passing front that drops a bit more rain than usual. Climate records show that any given winter month can swing from zero rain to several inches, but those higher totals are the exception, not the norm.

Why your weather app looks so gloomy

Here’s where things get confusing for travelers.

Phone apps often show a rain icon if there’s any small chance of a shower in a 24-hour period — even if that “rain” is a five-minute sprinkle overnight. They may also rely on inland or generic regional models that don’t always reflect the very local, coastal conditions you’ll actually feel at your resort.

We’ve already broken down why your phone’s weather app is lying to you about Cabo and making things look stormier than they are in real life. The reality on the ground in winter is usually:

• Sunny skies most of the day
• Comfortable highs in the mid-70s to low-80s°F (24–27°C)
• Cool evenings where you’ll want a light layer, but not a parka

If you want more detail on temperatures, pools, and “will I be cold at night?”, our winter weather insider guide goes deep on exactly how those months feel hour by hour.

Winter vs “real” rainy season in Los Cabos

Part of the reason winter is so dry is timing. Los Cabos sits in the Eastern Pacific hurricane basin, and storm season officially runs from mid-May through November, with the highest risk typically in late summer and early fall.

September in particular is famous for being hot, humid, and the most likely time for tropical systems and short but intense downpours.

By the time you get to December through February, hurricane season is over, the atmosphere is much more stable, and Cabo slides into its classic dry, sunny winter pattern. That’s why winter is the sweet spot for travelers who want blue skies without thinking about tropical storms.

What does a “rainy” winter day look like?

On the rare winter day when Cabo does see rain, it usually looks like:

• A quick shower or two with plenty of dry stretches
• Clouds and a bit of wind that make it feel cooler, especially at night
• The kind of day where you linger over brunch, hit the spa, or book a tequila tasting instead of staying at the pool all afternoon

We at The Cabo Sun always recommend packing a light rain shell or compact umbrella, but you’re far more likely to use your sunglasses and sunscreen than any rain gear. Cabo averages well over 300 sunny days a year thanks to its desert climate.

And because winter nights can drop into the upper-50s°F (around 14°C), a thin sweater or jacket is smart anyway — we’ve already unpacked how chilly evenings can surprise visitors who only packed beachwear.

How to use this info when planning your trip

Rain is just one piece of the winter puzzle. To really dial in your dates, you can combine rainfall data with crowd patterns:

• Our recent breakdown of how busy Cabo is in December shows when the “golden windows” are for softer prices and fewer crowds.
• If you’re flexible, our guide to 5 ways to beat the high season rush in Los Cabos this winter walks you through picking quieter weeks and times of day.
• And if you’re still not sure when to come at all, we’ve laid out exactly how to pick the perfect month so you’re not accidentally visiting at the wrong time for your weather and budget style.

Put simply: in winter, rain almost never needs to be the deciding factor. You can focus on flights, rates, and what kind of vibe you want — party-heavy holidays, whale-watching peak, or the calmer January lull.

Try our new Cabo Winter Rain Checker

To make all of this even easier, we’ve added a Cabo Winter Rain Checker tool right below this article.

Here’s how it works:

1. You plug in your travel month or exact date
2. The tool pulls long-term climate stats for Cabo
3. In seconds, you’ll see the average rainfall, typical number of rainy days, and how your dates compare to the rest of winter

Use it together with our crowd and price guides, and you’ll know exactly what to expect — instead of guessing based on a gloomy little rain icon.

Bottom line: if you’re dreaming of sunny pool days in Los Cabos this winter, the numbers are firmly on your side.