How Busy Is Cabo In December? Latest Figures Show The Winter Crowd Is Already Rolling In

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If you’re dreaming of a last-minute December escape to Cabo with quiet beaches and empty lounge chairs… we at The Cabo Sun have some tough love for you: that’s not the Cabo you’re flying into this winter.

Fresh numbers from state tourism officials show Baja California Sur is heading into the holidays with hotel occupancy projected above 70% across the board, thanks to rising air passenger traffic and new international routes into the state. And Los Cabos, as usual, is leading the charge. Recent reports from local hotel leaders point to around 75% average occupancy in November and December, with Thanksgiving and New Year’s pushing many resorts well past 90%.

In other words: yes, Cabo in December is busy—and getting busier every year.

What the new numbers really say about December

State officials now expect Baja California Sur to close 2025 with around 4.4 million visitors, after already handling more than 3.7 million air passengers and posting a 2.1% year-over-year jump in traffic through airports like San José del Cabo and La Paz.

At the same time, Los Cabos itself keeps smashing records for international arrivals, with over 3.8 million international visitors in the first ten months of 2025 and steady growth even as other Mexican beach hubs cool off.

Add in:

• A new Copa Airlines route from Panama City to Los Cabos that opens the door to more Central and South American travelers
• A second winter season of direct flights from Frankfurt to San José del Cabo, keeping the European pipeline flowing

…and you’ve got a recipe for a December that feels packed long before Santa even boards his sleigh.

We recently broke down how high season is already underway with occupancy topping 75% and what that means for travelers trying to lock in rooms, dining, and transfers. This December story is essentially the sequel: the crowd is no longer “coming” – it’s here.

When December feels the most crowded

Not every December week feels the same. Based on what we’re seeing on the ground and in hotel forecasts:

• Thanksgiving week kicked things off with an estimated 78% jump in tourist arrivals statewide, with most Americans choosing Los Cabos to celebrate. That surge doesn’t just vanish on Black Friday—it blends right into early December.
• The “crunch zone” is still Christmas through New Year’s (roughly Dec 22 – Jan 4), when local hoteliers routinely report surges approaching 90% occupancy and sky-high rates.
• If you’ve got flexible dates, our new guide to the three most overbooked weeks in Los Cabos and smarter alternatives is essential reading, especially if you’d rather spend your vacation at the pool than in a line at check-in.

On the flip side, we at The Cabo Sun are big fans of what we’ve called the “golden window”:

• December 1–15: whales are just arriving, weather is dreamy, and prices are noticeably softer than the holidays
• January 5–31: decorations come down, but the sunshine and whales stick around while crowds and rates dip

Our recent 5 ways to beat the high season rush in Los Cabos this winter walks through exactly how to time your stay around those softer weeks.

Where you’ll actually feel the December crowds

A 70–75% occupancy number can sound abstract, so here’s how it shows up in real life:

• Airports: San José del Cabo’s SJD is gearing up for up to 130 flights on peak Saturdays in high season, nearly double a typical off-season weekend. If you land on a Saturday before Christmas, expect fuller planes, longer immigration lines, and a very lively arrivals hall. Our deep dive on how busy Los Cabos Airport gets in high season includes specific timing and airport hacks.
• Hotels & prices: With average nightly rates hovering around $500 this high season, those occupancy levels mean the best-value rooms and swankiest suites are the first to disappear. We’ve already unpacked what that $500 average really means—and how to still find value—in our dedicated hotel pricing guide.
• Restaurants & activities: When the destination is three-quarters full on paper, signature restaurants, yacht charters, whale-watching tours, and spa slots behave like they’re at (or near) capacity. Our piece on Los Cabos bracing for a packed high season explains why last-minute “we’ll just figure it out when we get there” planning is now a risky move.

Smart moves if you’re coming to Cabo this December

If Cabo is on your December wish list, the goal isn’t to avoid the crowd entirely—it’s to stay one step ahead of it. A few plays we strongly recommend:

• Shift your dates slightly. If you can slide into the Dec 1–15 “golden window” or the early-January lull instead of Christmas week, you’ll feel a noticeable difference in both crowds and pricing. Our Ultimate Month-by-Month Tool for planning your Cabo trip lets you compare weather, crowds, and rates for your exact month before you hit “book.”
• Lock in the big pieces now. Pick your resort, pre-book airport transfers, and grab key restaurant and tour reservations before you even start packing. Our guide to how busy high season already is (and the checklist to beat it) is basically your December survival manual.
• Use the crowd to your advantage. There’s a reason Los Cabos is trending as one of Mexico’s ultimate winter escapes for 2025: world-class resorts, whale season, serious dining, and a strong safety record all wrapped into one. Our new month-by-month planner and airport guides are built to turn that busy energy into a smoother trip, not a stressful one.

Bottom line: Cabo in December is busy, but it doesn’t have to feel overwhelming. If you treat these new occupancy figures as a nudge to plan like a pro—rather than a reason to stay home—you can still snag that perfect winter escape, even with the crowds already rolling in.