Hurricane Season Watch: Los Cabos Keeping Eye On Developing Tropical Storm Alvin

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Heads up, Los Cabos expats, tourists & locals! Count on The Cabo Sun throughout hurricane season as we’re ready to provide extensive storm coverage to ensure you stay informed and safe. While there’s no need to hit the panic button, we’re at that time of year again, and our eyes are turning towards the Pacific. A developing weather system, likely to be named Tropical Storm Alvin, is starting to swirl off the coast of southern Mexico. Forecasters are keeping a close watch on its progress, and while its future path is still up in the air, Los Cabos is one of several possibilities on the long-range outlook.

Right now, it’s all about watching and waiting. The system is still getting its act together, but the conditions out in the ocean are ripe for it to strengthen into the first named storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season.

What the Forecasters Are Saying

As of Wednesday morning, May 28th, Accuweather and other weather watchers are saying there’s a very high chance – nearly 100 percent, in fact – that this disturbance will become a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Alvin later today or tonight. It’s currently located several hundred miles south of the Mexican mainland, near areas like Acapulco, and is chugging along in a general west-northwest direction at about 10 miles per hour.

Meteorologists are also suggesting that if Alvin really gets organized and finds itself in a favorable spot with warm waters, it could even reach hurricane strength by Thursday. That’s something they’ll be monitoring closely.

The big question for us here in Los Cabos, and for other parts of the Pacific coast of Mexico, is “Where is it going to go?” That’s the tricky part this early on. Most of the computer models show Alvin continuing on its west-northwest track for a bit, and then potentially starting to take a more northerly turn.

Los Cabos: On the Radar, But No Cause for Alarm Yet

So, why is Los Cabos even in the conversation if the storm is still way down south? Well, when these storms form, they can have a wide range of potential tracks, especially in their early days. Some models might hint at a path that could bring it closer to the Baja California Peninsula over the weekend or early next week.

However, and this is important, forecasters also point out that the waters further north, closer to Baja California Sur, tend to be cooler. There’s also often more wind shear in that area – those are winds blowing at different speeds or directions at different heights in the atmosphere. Both cooler water and wind shear are like kryptonite to tropical storms; they tend to weaken them, sometimes quite significantly.

One meteorologist from FOX Weather, Britta Merwin, put it this way: “That’s usually how things work for the (Eastern Pacific). You know, our water temperatures cool significantly off of Baja (California). This will generally be indirect impacts because, although this is tracking towards Baja (California) and also the Pacific coast of Mexico, it will no longer be a tropical system at that point because the water temperature is significantly cooler.”

So, while a direct hit from a strong “Alvin” isn’t the main concern for Los Cabos at this moment, authorities and residents will still be keeping a vigilant eye. Even a weakening system or one that passes further offshore can bring some effects, like higher surf, stronger rip currents, and maybe some gusty winds or bands of rain.

Staying Prepared and Informed

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially kicked off on May 15th and runs through November 30th. It’s a good reminder for everyone in Los Cabos – residents, business owners, and upcoming visitors – to have their basic hurricane preparedness plans in place. This doesn’t mean you need to run out and board up your windows today for Alvin, but it’s about being aware and ready for the season in general.

What can you do right now?

• Stay Updated: Keep an eye on reputable weather sources like the U.S. National Hurricane Center (nhc.noaa.gov) and Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (smn.conagua.gob.mx). Local news outlets, including us here at The Cabo Sun, will also provide updates if the situation changes and Alvin becomes more of a concern for our area.
• Review Your Plan: If you have a hurricane plan, give it a once-over. If you don’t, now’s a good time to think about what you’d do if a storm did head our way.
• Check Supplies: Think about things like water, non-perishable food, batteries, flashlights, and first-aid kits. Again, this is general seasonal preparedness, not a specific alarm for Alvin.

For now, it’s a waiting game. Forecasters will get a much clearer picture of Alvin’s likely strength and track in the coming days. Rest assured, we’ll be watching closely and will let you know if there’s anything more specific to be concerned about for Los Cabos. Until then, enjoy the sunshine, but keep that little bit of seasonal awareness in the back of your mind.