10-Foot Waves Hit Cabo: What Beachgoers Need To Know About Latest Swell Alert

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If you are currently waking up in your Los Cabos resort, opening the balcony doors, and hearing the absolutely massive roar of the ocean, you are not imagining things. The usually calm, crystal-clear waters of the Baja peninsula are currently churning, and local authorities are officially flying the red and black warning flags across the beaches.

While the peak of the Pacific hurricane season typically winds down by late October, Mother Nature has decided to throw one last late-season curveball at the Baja California peninsula. A tropical system officially named “Vance” is currently passing incredibly close to the southern tip of the state, drastically altering ocean conditions and bringing some much-needed—but highly disruptive—rain to the region.

If you have a boat tour booked, were planning a snorkeling trip, or just wanted to swim at Medano Beach today, you need to drastically adjust your itinerary. Here is exactly what is happening off the coast, how massive the waves are getting, and what every single tourist in Los Cabos needs to know to stay safe until the storm passes.

The Friday Flash Flood Emergency

Before we talk about the ocean, we have to talk about the streets. On Friday afternoon, a catastrophic flash flood emergency struck Los Cabos, completely overwhelming the local municipal infrastructure.

Driven by a massive moisture plume from the remnants of Tropical Storm Vance, an unprecedented seven inches of rain fell across the region in just a few short hours. Because Cabo is a hard-baked desert environment with very little natural drainage, that volume of water instantly transformed dry arroyos into violent, raging rivers. The sheer force of the floodwaters picked up parked vehicles and moving cars alike, sweeping several of them completely downstream and directly out to sea near Costa Azul Beach.

Local police and emergency rescue crews were pushed to the absolute limit, executing 12 highly dangerous, mid-day extraction operations to save trapped motorists from sinking vehicles. The chaos also forced the mass emergency evacuation of a local medical facility, moving roughly 350 people out of the building as floodwaters breached the property. School classes were canceled, massive road closures were locked down, and airport transfers experienced heavy delays as shuttles navigated around the worst washouts.

Despite the incredible property damage and terrifying visuals, there is one absolute miracle to report: local authorities have confirmed zero deaths and zero injuries from yesterday’s massive floods.

These videos demonstrate the sheer force of desert flash floods and exactly why local authorities warn against driving through flowing water.

The Anatomy of Tropical Depression Vance

First, let us start with the good news: Los Cabos is not taking a direct hit from a major hurricane.

Vance originally spun up as a much stronger system further south in the Pacific, actually reaching major hurricane strength at its absolute peak before rapidly deteriorating. As it moved north into cooler waters and encountered stronger upper-level winds, it was heavily shredded apart. By the time it reached our latitude, the system had officially degraded from a tropical storm down to a Tropical Depression.

According to the latest data from the National Meteorological Service (SMN), the center of Tropical Depression Vance was located just 135 kilometers (about 84 miles) east-southeast of Cabo San Lucas on Thursday evening. It is currently churning northward at a sluggish pace of 11 km/h (7 mph), packing maximum wind gusts of up to 75 km/h (47 mph).

While Vance is technically just a depression, you should never underestimate a disorganized storm. Because the center of circulation is passing so incredibly close to the Cabo San Lucas coastline, the outer bands of the system are dragging massive amounts of moisture and energy directly into the Tourist Corridor.

The Real Threat: 10-Foot Waves and Rip Currents

The absolute biggest hazard for tourists right now is not the wind—it is the ocean.

When a tropical system passes this close to the coast, it operates like a massive plunger, pushing millions of tons of water directly toward the shoreline. The SMN has issued a strict warning that Vance’s wind gusts are generating dangerous swells up to 3 meters (roughly 10 feet) high along the coast of Baja California Sur.

The National Hurricane Center has also issued bulletins warning that these exact swells are highly likely to cause life-threatening surf and extreme rip current conditions across the southern portion of the Baja peninsula.

If you are staying on the Pacific side of Cabo San Lucas (from Land’s End up toward Diamante), you already know the ocean there is notoriously dangerous on a calm day. Right now, it is essentially a washing machine of crushing shorebreak. Even on the typically calmer Sea of Cortez side, including the usually tranquil waters of Medano Beach and Chileno Bay, the 10-foot swells are rushing up the sand, creating chaotic and highly unpredictable conditions.

Heavy Rain and Localized Flooding

Beyond the massive waves, Vance is also dumping a significant amount of water on the region. The SMN is forecasting very heavy point rainfall across Baja California Sur as the outer bands of the depression sweep across the peninsula.

If you are staying in downtown Cabo San Lucas or San José del Cabo, you need to be prepared for localized street flooding. The desert landscape does not absorb heavy tropical downpours very well. When sudden, heavy rain hits, the water quickly runs off the mountains and funnels directly down the steep city streets toward the marina. It is incredibly common for the main tourist avenues to temporarily flood with a few inches of rushing water during these types of downpours.

Local authorities are strongly urging the public to take extreme precautions. The standard rule applies: if you see a flooded street or a rushing stream crossing a roadway, never attempt to drive or walk through it.

How Tourists Need to React Right Now

If you are currently on vacation in Los Cabos, your absolute priority today is respecting the ocean and following the directives of local Civil Protection authorities.

• Stay Out of the Water: This is non-negotiable. Every single public beach in Los Cabos should currently be flying red flags (swimming prohibited) or black flags (beach completely closed). Do not attempt to swim, paddleboard, or kayak. The rip currents generated by these 10-foot waves can pull even the strongest Olympic-level swimmers out to sea in a matter of seconds.
• Keep Your Distance from the Shorebreak: Do not walk along the wet sand right where the waves are crashing. Rogue waves—sudden swells that are significantly larger than the average waves—are incredibly common during tropical depressions. These waves can surge much further up the beach than you expect, knocking you off your feet and dragging you into the undertow.
• Expect Port Closures: The local Port Captain has almost certainly suspended all small maritime craft operations. This means all sunset cruises, deep-sea fishing charters, snorkeling tours, and water taxis out to the Arch are officially grounded until the swells subside.

Adjusting Your Cabo Itinerary

Having a beach day ruined by tropical rain and 10-foot waves is definitely frustrating, but it does not mean your vacation is ruined. Los Cabos is home to some of the most spectacular indoor luxury experiences in the world, making it very easy to pivot your plans.

Today is the absolute perfect day to book a massive, multi-hour treatment at your resort’s spa. Take advantage of the indoor hydrotherapy circuits, get a deep tissue massage, and listen to the rain from the comfort of a heated lounge chair.

Alternatively, head over to the Luxury Avenue shopping mall in the Cabo Marina for some high-end retail therapy, or secure a reservation at one of the region’s incredible culinary hotspots for a long, relaxed, multi-course lunch.

The Weekend Outlook

The good news is that this disruptive weather is not going to last very long. Tropical Depression Vance is moving north, away from the tip of the peninsula, and weather models expect the system to completely degrade into a post-tropical cyclone by Friday.

As the storm breaks apart and moves toward the Mexican mainland, the skies over Los Cabos will rapidly clear up, and the massive 10-foot ocean swells will slowly begin to subside over the weekend. By Saturday afternoon, you should be right back in your favorite lounge chair with a margarita in hand, enjoying the flawless Baja sunshine once again. Until then, stay out of the water, respect the local warnings, and enjoy a relaxing, rainy day inside the resort.