Tropical Storm Vance Will Weaken And Expected To Steer Away From Los Cabos: Here’s What Travels Can Expect

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If you are packing your bags for a trip to Los Cabos this week, seeing a named tropical system popping up on the weather radar is enough to make your stomach drop. You immediately start picturing ruined beach days, canceled flights, and a vacation spent hiding inside a hotel room. Luckily, you can take a massive sigh of relief. Tropical Storm Vance is actively weakening and expected to steer completely away from the Baja California Peninsula.

Los Cabos will not experience a direct strike or any damaging winds from this system. However, just because the storm is tracking offshore does not mean the region will completely escape its effects. Vance is still churning up the Pacific Ocean and pulling tropical moisture into the atmosphere. If you are in Cabo this week, here is exactly what you can expect on the ground and in the water.

Hot, Sticky, And Muggy Weather

While you do not have to worry about hurricane force winds, you absolutely need to prepare for intense humidity. From today (Tuesday) through Thursday, Los Cabos will experience incredibly muggy conditions. The lingering tropical moisture pulled up by Vance is getting trapped over the region. Because a broad area of high pressure is currently sitting over the Baja peninsula, the standard desert heat is blending directly with that tropical moisture. This combination makes the afternoon conditions feel incredibly sticky. The nighttime temperatures will also remain balmy and humid, offering very little relief after the sun goes down.

The good news is that this storm will not be a washout for your vacation. While there is a daily chance of thin, passing tropical cloud bands filtering the sunshine, widespread heavy downpours are simply not expected on the coast. You might see a highly localized, brief shower over the high ridges of the Sierra de la Laguna mountains, but downtown Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo should stay dry.

Dangerous Surf And Heavy Shorebreak

The biggest actual threat from Tropical Storm Vance has nothing to do with the wind or the rain. The real danger is hiding in the ocean. From today through Wednesday, large and powerful long period ocean swells generated by the storm are actively rolling into all south and southwest facing Pacific beaches, as well as the East Cape.

These swells are incredibly deceptive. The ocean might look calm for a few minutes, and then a massive set of waves will suddenly crash onto the sand. Because these swells are coinciding with morning high tides, you need to expect heavy shorebreak, aggressive wave runups, and incredibly dangerous rip currents. You will absolutely see red or black flags flying at the lifeguard stands this week. You must take these flags seriously and stay out of the ocean. Stick to your incredible resort swimming pool until the ocean calms down.

Tour Cancellations And Port Closures

Because the ocean swells are so aggressive right now, the local Port Captain (Capitania de Puerto) is taking strict safety measures. During high swell events like this, authorities routinely restrict or completely close the port to small vessels. This directly impacts any tourist activities involving small boats.

If you have an excursion booked for Tuesday or Wednesday, you need to expect cancellations. This includes water taxis to Pelican Rock, snorkeling excursions, sunset sails on smaller catamarans, rental jet skis, and local fishing charters on panga boats. The port authority will not allow these small vessels to operate in dangerous shorebreak conditions. You should immediately reach out to your tour operator on WhatsApp or check with your resort concierge to verify the status of your booking before you head down to the marina.

Cruise Ship Disruptions

The rough ocean conditions are also a major headache for cruise ship passengers. Cabo San Lucas is famously a tender port. This means massive cruise ships cannot pull directly up to a dock. They must anchor out in the bay and transport their thousands of passengers to the marina using fleets of smaller tender boats. When severe shorebreak and rough swells enter the bay, loading and unloading those small tender boats becomes incredibly dangerous. If the swell is too high, cruise lines will frequently cancel their Cabo San Lucas stop entirely for the safety of their passengers and continue moving down the coast.

The Weekend Outlook

The absolute best news is that these disruptions are highly temporary. By Thursday, the massive ocean swells will begin a gradual downward trend. As we head into Friday, October 30, Tropical Storm Vance is expected to completely dissipate over the open water. The intense humidity will finally break, fresher air will filter back into the peninsula, and the ocean will return to its standard calm state just in time for a perfect weekend.