Tropical Storm Simon Turns Away From Cabo: Here’s What To Expect This Weekend

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If you have been obsessively checking the weather apps ahead of your weekend trip to Los Cabos, you can finally breathe a massive sigh of relief. Earlier this week, forecast models showed Hurricane Simon taking a concerning path that pointed straight toward the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Local authorities were on high alert, and travelers were nervously preparing for a potential direct hit.

Fortunately, the atmosphere had a different plan. The actual ground truth for right now shows that the center of Tropical Storm Simon is currently sitting about 210 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas. It has weakened significantly, dropping down to 40 mph sustained winds as dry continental air and high wind shear dismantled its core over the ocean. The storm is staying well south and west of the resort zones and is no longer a major threat to land. Here is exactly how today and this weekend are playing out on the ground in Los Cabos.

Today’s Actual Conditions (Friday, Oct 16)

The day started mostly sunny and calm across the region. However, as the moisture envelope from Simon edges closer to the coast, travelers can expect a few weather shifts this afternoon.

• Scattered Rain: Light rain and scattered showers are expected to develop this afternoon, mainly between 2:00 PM and 6:00 PM. It is the perfect time to book a spa treatment or grab a long lunch indoors.
• The Mugginess: It is incredibly muggy and humid right now. Humidity levels are sitting around 70 to 74 percent. While the actual high temperature is 31°C (88°F), the humidity makes it feel closer to a sweltering 35°C (95°F). Winds are currently coming out of the east at a gentle 10 to 14 mph.

The Weekend Outlook (Saturday, Oct 17 – Sunday, Oct 18)

If you are flying in this weekend, the storm will absolutely not ruin your weekend plans on land. The National Hurricane Center confirms that Simon will continue moving northwest and fade into a post-tropical remnant low within the next 24 hours.

• Beautiful Skies: Saturday and Sunday will clear out beautifully. Expect completely sunny and clear skies both days with a zero percent chance of rain.
• Cooler Evenings: Highs will sit comfortably around 31°C to 32°C (88°F–90°F), with cooler, clearer nights dropping to 27°C (80°F). The heavy mugginess will finally begin to lift on Sunday as the winds shift to the southwest.

The Only Real Danger This Weekend: The Ocean

Even though the storm is weak and staying well away from the area, its residual energy is heavily churning the Pacific Ocean. The biggest danger for tourists this weekend will be found right at the water’s edge.

• Dangerous Swells: Long-period southerly ocean swells are generating dangerous shorebreaks, exceptionally high waves, and powerful rip currents along the coastlines of Cabo San Lucas and up toward Todos Santos.
• Potential Port And Beach Disruptions: Port authorities are closely monitoring ocean conditions and may enforce temporary small-craft closures if swells worsen. Travelers should be prepared for the possibility that water excursions, sunset cruises, or fishing charters could face temporary delays or cancellations heading into Saturday. Lifeguards may also post black warning flags on local beaches if surf conditions deteriorate, so be sure to check with your tour operator and avoid swimming at open beaches until waters settle.

The waters should begin calming down by Sunday afternoon, allowing you to safely enjoy the incredible beaches that make Los Cabos a world-class destination. Follow the guidance of the local lifeguards, stay out of the rough surf, and enjoy a beautiful, sunny weekend in Baja California Sur.

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