Los Cabos International Tourists Drop By 15% In September: Here’s What’s Driving The Decline

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It is already a notoriously slow time for Los Cabos as the traditional low season continues to drag on. But this year, the destination is seeing a massive decline in passenger numbers compared to 2025. The latest data reveals a steep drop in international tourist arrivals, falling by 15 percent in September alone. Back in September 2025, the destination welcomed 197,000 international visitors. This September, that number sank to just 168,000.

And this drop was not just an isolated bad month for the airports. Year to date, Los Cabos is down roughly 300,000 passengers, which is an 8.4 percent drop overall. We have tracked travel trends for Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo for the last 15 years, and there is definitely a major shift happening right now.

So what is actually causing this massive decline? Here is a breakdown of the biggest reasons travelers are skipping Baja California Sur this year.

The Cost Of A Vacation Has Skyrocketed

Let us be completely honest. A trip to Los Cabos is simply no longer a cheap getaway. The entire region has gone completely upmarket over the last few years, with the vast majority of properties now geared heavily towards ultra luxury spenders. If you want a budget friendly beach vacation, Cabo is getting harder and harder to navigate.

While mid range all inclusives like the popular Riu Santa Fe still exist, they are becoming few and far between. The destination is heavily focusing on attracting affluent travelers who are completely willing to drop thousands of dollars a night. For the average traveler looking for a quick and affordable weekend escape under the Mexican sun, those high price tags are sending them searching for other, more affordable beach towns.

The Power Of The Super Peso

Another massive factor hitting tourists right in the wallet is the booming strength of the Mexican economy. The local currency has been incredibly strong all throughout 2026, leading to what many financial experts are calling the super peso.

Because the peso is so strong against the dollar, the overall base rate of hotel rooms, dinners, and daily excursions is naturally much higher before hotels even account for their regular annual price increases. Everything from a simple plate of street tacos to a luxury sunset boat cruise simply costs more when the exchange rate is not working in your favor. Travelers are realizing their vacation budget does not stretch nearly as far as it used to.

Security Alerts And Negative Headlines

Los Cabos was heavily exposed to some negative headlines generated by the US State Department earlier this year. A highly publicized security alert was issued due to an isolated conflict near the airport. On top of that, there was another scary incident where a car plowed through a crowd in the downtown marina during a World Cup celebration.

While the overall perception of the destination has actually stayed very strong according to the Traveler Safety Index, those negative headlines definitely had a lingering impact on some bookings. When casual travelers see scary news alerts pop up on social media, they often decide to just book a flight somewhere else to completely avoid any potential stress.

The Lower All Inclusive Market

The all inclusive resort model is absolutely booming right now. We are seeing massive destinations like Cancun converting major luxury properties, including the upscale Conrad, into fully all inclusive resorts just to meet traveler demand. People want to pay one flat rate and leave their wallets locked in the room safe.

However, Los Cabos actually has far fewer all inclusives overall. The destination focuses much more heavily on the ultra high end categories of European plan hotels. These are massive luxury properties where your nightly rate only covers the room itself. Once you add in expensive breakfasts, poolside cocktails, and gourmet dinners, your total bill skyrockets. Travelers are realizing that going all inclusive somewhere else is often a much better financial deal.

An Extremely Active Hurricane Season

Finally, the weather has played a massive role in the recent passenger drop. The Pacific hurricane season has been incredibly active this year. While there have been no catastrophic direct hits, Los Cabos has been impacted by four different hurricanes passing offshore.

Storms brought massive ocean swells that forced authorities to close the port and shut down the beaches with black warning flags. When the port is closed, all the fun boat tours to the Arch and snorkeling trips get canceled. These constant weather disruptions completely upset the rhythm of a holiday, leading many frustrated travelers to simply cancel their trips and wait for calmer skies.

Was This Cabo’s Plan All Along?

It is also worth asking if this drop in numbers is exactly what local tourism boards wanted in the first place. Los Cabos has not exactly kept it a secret that they are aggressively transitioning into an ultra luxury model. For the last few years, they have actively promoted the region as a high end getaway, intentionally shifting their marketing away from mass budget travelers.

The overall strategy seems to be focusing heavily on quality over quantity. They appear perfectly fine welcoming fewer tourists, as long as those visitors are willing to spend significantly more money during their stay. If this lower volume of high end travelers actually translates into the exact same amount of revenue for the local economy and hotels, only time will tell. But for now, the quieter beaches and highly exclusive vibe are exactly what those high paying visitors are looking for.